My fellow Americans,
today, I'm here to inform the American people
that investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets is a game of speculation.
It's a statistical escapade of attempting to identify patterns, trends and tendencies.
Once you develop an edge,
you use these patterns to your advantage and make life-changing gains.
My question is,
is there a pattern or correlation between Bitcoin and who gets chosen to sit in the Oval Office?
Time to lock up the ballot box and shuffle through the house of cards.
Let's get it!
Welcome to BitBoy crypto!
My name is Ben.
And my mission is to empower you to find financial freedom through crypto assets.
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In this video, we will discuss how presidential elections and midterm elections affect the price of Bitcoin.
The most successful traders are the ones who can identify reoccurring patterns
to capitalize on the likelihood of history repeating itself.
Some traders take the analytical approach and rely solely on TA and reading charts.
On the other hand, there are a number of traders who find more unconventional patterns
and don't take charts that much into consideration.
For instance, some traders will trade based off of the phases of the moon
or only trade during October
or even something as arbitrary as buying every Friday and selling every Monday.
The key to this type of belief system is trying to find a pattern that plays out more times
than it does not,
regardless of the news, 2-hour charts or Bollinger bands.
What you will be astounded to learn here is that sometimes they're right.
That doesn't make them the best traders in the world.
But a pattern is a pattern.
The famous Jay-Z once said
♪ But even a broken clock is right at least two times a day. ♪
Understand that at the end of the day,
the charts you look at are only a reflection of human emotion.
When people are really emotional, there's blood in the streets.
That's when veteran traders make the biggest plays.
How can you use this to your advantage?
Well, there's an array of things that make people emotional,
but in America, what gets people more fired up than elections?
In statistics, it's difficult to make a completely accurate assumption
about anything without a cluster of data.
There are only three major elections to go off of in the lifespan of Bitcoin.
So be cautious using this as a definitive greenlight
because there's not a large cluster of data.
Also, keep in mind that correlation is not causation.
Just because something happens two or three times
doesn't mean that it's going to be guaranteed to happen the next time.
Yes, there is an array of data between elections and the stock markets.
And, yes, to an extent,
Bitcoin does correlate with the traditional markets,
but other times, Bitcoin completely decouples from the traditional markets.
Like, did the traditional markets increase over 15,000% in the past seven years?
No, they didn't.
So for the sake of this video, let's just stick to Bitcoin.
So, what numbers do we have to work with?
We have the 2012 election when Obama defeated Romney,
2016 election when Trump defeated Clinton,
and the 2020 election when Biden defeated Trump,
and, of course, the midterms for the first two tenures.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 and was trading for 9¢ by July of 2010.
Huh! Don't you wish you could buy some Bitcoin for 9¢ now?
Emotional damage!
Investopedia reported that the first real-world purchase using Bitcoin took place on May 22, 2010.
As the story goes,
a man named Laszlo Hanyecz purchased two medium Papa John's pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin.
Today, that's valued over $407 million!
It's over $25 million a slice.
Guy must really love pepperoni.
Bitcoin hit $1 for the first time in February of 2011.
Once it was available on Mt. Gox, it surged to $15 by July.
Then in typical Bitcoin fashion,
it corrected heavily and ended the year just over $3.
Right away, this asset was feared for its unpredictable volatility.
It also didn't help that Bitcoin had a negative stigma attached to it for a while
because of its association with the Silk Road.
Regardless, now, we're on to the first election year for Bitcoin in 2012.
Obama was running for re-election against Mitt Romney.
After Bitcoin's massive 2011 correction,
it mostly traded sideways for around $5 for the first half of 2012.
From June to October, Bitcoin surged from $5.27 to $12.40.
In anticipation for the election, Bitcoin dropped to $10.57.
And once Obama won, it went back up for the rest of the year.
Now, this is very important.
Keep in mind that Bitcoin had its first halving in 2012 as well
and went from $12 to $1,150 within a year,
increasing nearly 9,500%.
The halving cycle started off in sync with the elections.
But they will eventually fall out of sync
because they're off by a few months.
So for 2012, it's hard to tell which of these factors are really responsible for Bitcoin going up.
But the key takeaway from this election was when it went down in October.
Markets don't react well to times of uncertainty.
That's something you should always keep in mind.
Once the election was over,
Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory,
and in 2013 was the first year of parabolic bullishness.
In 2014 was a soul-crushing bear market.
The midterms in 2014 didn't really play much of a role at all.
Bitcoin only went up in 3 out of 12 months in 2014.
And the lowest price increase of those three green months was during the midterms.
It only went up $53 from November to December.
The overall takeaway from the 2012 election was this.
Hesitation before election and bullish continuation afterwards
with a minimal price increase from the midterms.
In 2016, Donald Trump set out to make America great again.
Before you get into the comments,
remember,
there's no red or blue party here, only gains.
My goal is to educate and inform the BitSquad
so you guys can have green candle parties.
The start of 2016 was very bullish,
increasing from the February low of $371 to a July peak of $676.
The second halving occurred in July,
but instead of an immediate pump,
Bitcoin unexpectedly fell to $571 in September.
This time, there was no pre-election hesitation,
and Bitcoin continued to rise through the election.
The market cap of Bitcoin grew $3.55 billion from November to December in 2016,
proving that once again, the aftermath of the election was bullish.
The following year, 2017, was a massive year for Bitcoin.
From year end to end,
it went from just under $1,000 all the way to $13,412.
I wish Bitcoin could 13X every year.
That would be nice.
Just like 2013 was a bull and 2014 was a bear,
2017 was a bull and 2018 was a bear.
Maybe there's a pattern there?
Unfortunately, Trump's 2018 midterms were bearish.
The price dropped to over $2,100 from November to December,
and the market cap lost over $4.5 billion.
Overall takeaway so far?
Two bullish elections, one sort of bullish midterm,
and one bearish midterm.
So, now, we're on to the third election in Bitcoin's lifespan,
when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump.
Now, 2020 was a very bullish year for crypto,
with 8 out of the 12 months being green months,
and the year as a whole was in an overall upward trajectory.
Just like in 2012,
there was a pre-election hesitation,
except this one came a month sooner than we've seen before.
The price of Bitcoin continued to surge through the November election,
when the price was just under $14,000.
That surge continued well into 2021,
with a $63K all-time high in April.
From November to December 2020,
almost $175 billion was added to the market cap,
proving we're three for three in bullish presidential elections.
That sounds like a pattern to me.
So this leads us to today.
The next midterm elections will be on November 8 this year.
And it remains to be seen if there is a pattern with the midterms or not.
This one could be the tiebreaker.
The next presidential election will be on November 5, 2024.
We don't know for sure if this will be the fourth consecutive bullish election or not,
but we can count on it being an emotional one for sure.
Newsweek already released an article that shows 3 in 5 Americans
fear violence will ensue as a result of the next election.
These emotions will translate in the charts.
It's our job to use that to our advantage.
I mentioned before that emotional decisions are often referred to as mistakes.
Don't focus on your feelings.
Focus on the statistics.
Last year, it was estimated that 14-16% of Americans own crypto.
That number is now 22%.
Between 2012 and 2020, Bitcoin increased 193,639%.
God bless statistics.
God bless Bitcoin.
And God bless America.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.