On March 29th the United Kingdom leaves the European Union...
or was meant to leave the European Union.
In 2016 a referendum saw 52% of British people vote to exit the EU
aka Brexit.
Plans were drawn up, a deadline was set.
And yet the UK will probably not leave on schedule.
Here’s why.
Let’s rewind.
After the referendum result did not go in his favor, Prime Minister David Cameron resigned.
This prompted a leadership contest which Theresa May won uncontested after all her opponents dropped out.
So. Theresa May became prime minister and her message was clear
Brexit means Brexit.
And we are going to make a success of it.
Eurosceptic David Davis was appointed Brexit Secretary to thrash out the country’s withdrawal agreement with the EU.
Theresa May then called a surprise general election in 2017 in order to shore up her majority in the UK parliament.
But it backfired spectacularly when her Conservative party actually lost their majority,
meaning that going forward the government would find it a lot harder to pass any new laws.
At the end of 2017 the UK and the EU agreed on a proposal for Brexit
- there would be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland,
the rights of UK citizens living in EU countries would be protected, and vice versa,
and Britain agreed to pay a so called divorce bill to the EU,
somewhere in the region of £37bn, or $49bn, to be paid over four years.
But there were a number of issues that still needed to be sorted out
such as the transition period post-Brexit
and how a soft border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK would work in practice.
In July 2018 Theresa May’s Cabinet finally agreed on a plan.
But then two days later all hell broke loose as Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned,
followed swiftly by his deputy Steve Baker, as well as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.
All three felt that May's plan was not a proper Brexit, and conceded too much to the EU.
Housing minister Dominic Raab replaced Davis as the new Brexit Secretary.
Fast forward to November.
The British government and the EU agreed on the text of the withdrawal agreement,
although it wasn’t very well received by...anyone really.
Five members of May’s Cabinet resigned in protest at a deal,
including Dominic Raab who spent the last five months negotiating it,
because they didn’t think it honored the result of the referendum.
Health minister Stephen Barclay replaced Raab as the new, new Brexit Secretary.
A quick note on the Irish border before we continue.
One of the most contentious issues of the Brexit negotiations has been the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
The two countries share a land border that since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 has been all but invisible.
No one wants to see the return to a hard border,
which could reignite tensions and violence between unionists in the north and nationalists in the republic.
To ensure a soft border between the two a backstop was included in the withdrawal agreement:
a last resort option to keep the border open no matter what happens between the UK and the EU post-Brexit.
But leave supporting lawmakers don’t like the backstop because they fear it will keep the UK tied too closely to the EU.
The first vote on May’s deal with the EU was put to parliament on January 15, 2019.
Ultimately, MPs voted against the deal 432 - 202, making it the worst government defeat in modern UK history.
A second vote took place on March 12, after May got reassurances from the EU that the Irish backstop was only temporary.
The UK’s attorney general said there is still a risk the UK won’t be able to leave the backstop without the EU agreeing.
This did not please hard-core Brexiteers one bit, and the second vote also failed.
One of May’s biggest problems is that Brexit supporting lawmakers believe the deal leaves the UK too aligned with the EU,
while the opposition party politicians want to negotiate their own deal.
There are also many members of parliament that don’t want to leave the EU at all.
By this point the UK has found itself dangerously close to March 29 - the scheduled leaving date
- with nothing finalized.
Lawmakers voted to take No Deal off the table, even though this will be the default if no other deal can be made before March 29.
So then they voted to delay the date of departure, which the EU agreed to.
If after a third vote May’s deal passes, then the UK will leave the EU on May 22.
If it doesn’t pass, then the UK could crash out without a deal on April 12.
British lawmakers definitely don’t want that, but can’t agree on exactly what they do want.
Some want there to be a second referendum.
Others want Brexit to be scrapped altogether.
One of three things will happen:
Britain leaves the EU with a deal,
Britain leaves without a deal,
or Britain doesn’t leave at all.
But with the clock ticking,
nobody knows which of these three it will be.