It’s an image that will go down in history:
for the first time since fighting ended in 1953, a North Korean leader, in this case,
the ruthless dictator, Kim Jong-un, has set foot in South Korea to declare his supposed
intentions for peace and denuclearization.
Now, is this really the moment of peace?
What can we expect?
Why does everything suddenly seem to be going smoothly?
Is North Korea really willing to give up the nuclear bomb?
My friends, these are some of the questions I’m sure we’re all thinking.
So… let’s see.
Humming while walking and holding hands, toasting and dining together.
This is how we were able to witness the North and South Korean leaders last Friday, on April
27th, 2018.
We’re talking about the latest inter-Korean summit in which both countries committed to
seeking a definitive peace agreement – technically both Koreas are still at war – to rebuild
their relations and pursue the "denuclearization" of the Korean peninsula.
The summit took place in the demilitarized zone, in the town of Panmunjom, in the exact
same place where the Korean War armistice was signed.
Both the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, and the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in,
displayed a level of complicity that, dear viewers, would’ve been very hard to imagine
just a few months ago.
And the pictures from that day will go down in history.
I'm not exaggerating.
The scenes that we saw of walks, handshakes and whispers between the two leaders, wouldn’t
have been out of place in a romance movie.
And, you know what?
In a way, that was precisely what was happening, a... political "courtship" between two leaders,
who couldn’t be more different.
On the one hand, you have the South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, a lawyer who specialized
in human rights.
A man of humble origins whose parents managed to flee from North Korea and who was an activist
for democracy during his youth.
And on the other, Kim Jong-un, one of the worst tyrants on the planet.
The omnipotent leader of one of the most terrible countries anyone could imagine.
Because, my friends, despite the summit’s images, in which Kim Jong-un almost looked
like a carebear, let's not forget who he really is, let's not forget that the North Korean
leader heads an authentic regime of terror, in which human rights violations are part
of the state’s routine functions.
(“We’ve almost forgotten the allegations that he had his half brother killed with a
chemical weapon just last year and that he had his uncle ripped apart with antiaircraft
guns.”
Gary Samore, Obama’s White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction”.)
In spite of that, and thanks to the images we saw and the declaration both governments
agreed on, most of the press described this meeting as a "historic day", the day when,
once and for all, peace triumphed.
Now, how true is all this?
Are things really going that well?
In other words, are we facing a sincere exercise in diplomacy or a big marketing scam?
Has the Pyongyang roadmap changed?
Dialogue is certainly better than a march to war.
That said, we all need to keep our expectations in check.”
Wendy R. Sherman, US under secretary of state for political affairs from 2011 to 2015 and
North Korea policy coordinator in the Clinton administration.)
We’ll explore this, but first here’s a question I’m sure many of us have asked:
How the hell did we go, in just a few months, from hearing drums of war
to such a…
well… cordial and harmonious meeting?
Well, we can come up with 3 different explanations... that still complement the North Korean regime’s
new "behaviour"; which, in a very short time, went from threatening the United States to
suspending its nuclear and missile tests.
“North Korea threatens to turn U.S. into sea of flames.”
Yonhap News)
(“North Korea says it will suspend nuclear and missile tests” Washington Post)
So let’s take a look at the possible reasons for this change.
And, let me to tell you, things aren’t as simple as they seem.
(PYONGYANG, WE HAVE A PROBLEM.)
The first possible explanation.
According to several analysts from the United States and South Korea, and two studies by
Chinese researchers, the Punggye-RI nuclear test center, located in the heart of a 2,200-meter-high
mountain known as Mount Mantap, could have collapsed after the last atomic test, in which
a thermonuclear bomb of 250 kilotons was detonated by North Korea in this area on September 3rd,
2017.
The explosion was so strong, it caused a 6.3 magnitude earthquake.
Well, the collapse seems to have been confirmed, and it isn’t clear whether the center is
still operational or not.
“Based on the severity of the initial blast, the post-test tremors, and the extent of observable
surface disturbances,we have to assume that there must have been substantial damage to
the existing tunnel network under Mt.
Mantap.”
Frank V. Pabian y Jack Liu)
If it isn’t operational or if it’s too badly damaged, it could take some time for
the regime to rebuild it enough to be able to hold new tests in a "safe" manner.
Which could’ve accelerated the deadlines for announcing the suspension of new tests.
This could definitely be a factor that could have altered the deadlines... but no... it
doesn't look like this could be the main cause for the change of discourse.
IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID)
Another hypothesis has to do with the effect international sanctions are having on the
North Korean economy.
As you all know, North Korea is a very, very poor country.
See, for years, a large part of the international community has imposed sanctions on North Korea...
but these have generally not affected the country’s main partners: China, Russia,
Vietnam…
However, all this began to change with the sanctions that the United Nations began imposing
on North Korea in 2017 in response to nuclear tests.
For the first time these sanctions were greatly fulfilled by China... and that, my friends,
was a hard blow to this country.
The vast majority of North Korean trade happens with China and if that is cut...
well...
Pyongyang has a very serious problem.
A problem that multiplied when in September, after the last thermonuclear test, the United
Nations Security Council banned all of North Korea's key exports, including coal, iron,
and textiles.
And not only that, in December that same body agreed to also limit their refined oil imports
to half a million barrels per year, a 90% reduction compared to the amount of refined
oil North Korea had purchased the previous year.
The result of all this?
Well, several factories had to close due to a lack of raw materials and the army, due
to a lack of gasoline, had to resort to coal engines and even ox carts.
And although it may surprise you... this situation doesn’t only accentuate North Korea’s
weakness, it has also been a hard blow to Kim Jong-Un’s government, making economic
development a priority.
And... of course, these sanctions are also affecting the level of life of the elites
and of the incipient middle class…
Wait a minute, an emerging middle class in North Korea?
Yes… you heard that right.
In fact, here’s a question.
Do you think that a capitalist market can be developing within present-day North Korea?
Well... stay tuned for our upcoming videos.
But... even though all of this is important and has certainly influenced the situation...
it doesn’t sound like something that could put the regime at risk, at least not for the
moment.
“If you think the North Koreans would revolt or the regime would collapse because of sanctions,
you don’t know anything about the North Koreans.
These are people who survived the famine by eating weeds”.
Kang Mi-jin, a North Korean defector who works for the South’s central Bank of Korea.)
So... then why has Pyongyang changed its discourse so much?
Or... has it really just not changed?
(MISSION ACCOMPLISHED)
North Korea is a nuclear power.
That’s a fact.
According to American intelligence, this country could currently have between 20 and 60 warheads
ready to be used.
In other words, Pyongyang has already achieved its great goal, its life insurance, the best
deterrent instrument ever built.
True, in the last April 27th’s inter-Korean summit, North Korea promised to denuclearize
the peninsula... but just a moment... because that doesn’t mean it’s willing to give
up its nuclear weapons.
First, because North Korea has already promised many things that they didn’t do.
For example, the negotiations and agreements of 1991, 1994, 2000, 2007, 2012...
North Korean promises aren’t new, and so far they have always been… rather flimsy.
See, in 1994, Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, even went so far as to start dismantling
the nuclear program, allowing international inspectors to visit the country to verify
the process.
All in exchange for some generous help from the United States.
However years later, the world found out that it had been a scam, the program had continued
developing clandestinely.
In 2000, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung announced that a new day would come after
returning from his visit with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang.
In 2007, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun stated that during his visit to North Korea,
Kim Jong-il had shown a firm intention to restore peace.
And the second reason we can’t assume North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons: we
may not be on the same page about what constitutes denuclearization.
Allow me to explain.
For Pyongyang this term has a lot to do not only with its nuclear weapons, but also with
the US’s military capabilities in the peninsula and in the region.
And in any case, the truth is that it seems very difficult for Kim Jong-un to be willing
to part with his best life insurance.
( “We must remember: North Korea is still North Korea.
Kim is still the same person he was when he purged potential rivals, imprisoned thousands
of his people, and had his relatives killed.
This was a hopeful moment, but extreme caution is well warranted.”
Abraham Denmark, Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center and former US
assistant secretary of defense for East Asia.)
In fact, and this is something that intercepted North Korean communications have definitely
shown, everything seems to be part of some kind of roadmap:
First, ensure the survival of the regime, something he achieved with his nuclear arsenal.
And second, negotiate with the international community to end the sanctions and launch
a reform program that can attract investment from China and South Korea.
That means, although far from how things might seem at first, Pyongyang could simply be following
a well-outlined plan.
Was the inter-Korean summit a big marketing exercise?
This, in a way, explains why South Koreans are so skeptical of the North’s promises.
Check out this survey:
But, now, it’s your turn.
Do you think North Korea will actually give up its nuclear program?
Leave us your answer in the comments and also in this survey.
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Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode that were not mine!
And as always, thanks for watching!