>> I'M READY.
NEIL: HE IS RIGHT IT GOES ON AND
ON.
FORMER IM FSEC TIFF BORED MEMBER
DOUG WHITAKER SAYS THERESA MAY
IS LIKELY TO SURVIVE THE NO
CONFIDENCE VOTE.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE ARE OFF TO
THE RACES OR BRITAIN IS.
WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT IT,
WHEN I'M LOOKING AT THIS, DOUG,
OUR MARKETS DESPITE THE BANK
EXPOSURE TO BRITAIN, AND UNKNOWN
VARIABLES THEY KEEP ADVANCING.
WHAT AILS BRITAIN ACTUALLY IN A
WEIRD WAY HELPING US OR ARE WE
JUST IGNORING IT?
WHAT IS GOING ON?
>> I THINK WE'RE MORE IGNORING
IT THAN ACTUALLY TRYING TO
QUANTIFY THE RISK AND LOOKING AT
SUPPLY CHAINS.
THE BIG RISKS FROM BREXIT,
NUMBER ONE, SOME GEOPOLITICAL
SEISMIC SHIFT WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE THE CASE.
NUMBER TWO, DIRECT LINKAGES IN
THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND THAT IS
PRETTY WELL INSULATED OR
ANTICIPATED.
I'M NOT SAYING IT WILL WORK OUT
THAT WELL FOR PARTIES INVOLVED
BUT THE IDEA ON MARCH 30th
OR ON ANY DATE THEREAFTER THERE
IS A FINANCIAL MARKET MELTDOWN
BECAUSE THEY, THE BRITS LEAVE
WITHOUT A DEAL, SEEMS LIKE IT IS
UNLIKELY FOR A VARIETY OF
DIFFICULT REASONS.
SO IT IS NOT THAT U.S. INVESTORS
ARE TAKING IT FOR GRANTED AS
QUANTIFYING THAT RISK.
I THINK IT IS JUST SORT OF
BEMUSEMENT AS YOUR COLLEAGUE
JUST SAID FROM THE EU.
THERE IS A CERTAIN SENSE OF
BEMUSEMENT FROM THE INVESTOR
COMMUNITY AS WELL.
I'M NOT SURE THAT IS WELL-PLACED
BUT I THINK THAT IS MORE OR LESS
WHAT PEOPLE ARE THINKING.
NEIL: I KNOW THERE IS A REVOLT,
LABOUR PARTY, OBVIOUSLY JEREMY
CORBYN WOULD LOVE TO BECOME THE
NEXT PRIME MINISTER AND TOPPLE
THIS GOVERNMENT, BUT I DON'T
NOTICE ANY PEOPLE WITHIN THE
PRIME MINISTER'S OWN PARTY
RAISING THEIR HAND SAYING COME
TO ME, COME TO ME.
ALMOST IF THEY WANT TO SEE THIS
SORTED OUT BEFORE THEY BRAVE
STEPPING UP BUT WHAT IS YOUR
SENSE?
>> BUT THE TORY PARTY IS
BASICALLY TWO PARTIES DON'T LIKE
EACH OTHER AND DON'T AGREE ON
THIS ISSUE BUT THEY'RE UNDER
UMBRELLA PARTY UNDER THE TORY
PARTY.
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT
WANT TO BE THE NEXT PRIME
MINISTER.
NOBODY WANTS TO STICK THEIR TOE
IN THE WATER TO OWN THIS THING
BECAUSE THIS THING IS A MESS.
FOR SOME DEGREE, THE REASON
THERESA MAY IS LIKELY TO GET
THROUGH THE NO CONFIDENCE VOTE
ALL THE TORY MPs, DUP, THE
NORTHERN IRISH PARTY SUPPORTS
GOVERNMENT DON'T WANT TO LOSE
THEIR SEATS.
THEY KNOW THE CHAOS WOULD ENSUE
IN A NEW ELECTION IS PROBABLY
NOT GREAT, STARTING WITH WHO THE
HELL WOULD BE THERESA MAY'S
SUCCESSOR LEADING THE TORY ES
INTO THE ELECTION.
NOBODY KNOWS.
NEIL: QUICKLY INDULGE ME ON THIS
POINT.
IS IT YOUR SENSE THEY WOULD HAVE
BE IN BETTER STRAITS IF THEY HAD
GONE COLD TURKEY AFTER THE VOTE?
BY NOW WE WOULD HAVE THIS
FIGURED OUT AND THIS LINGERING,
FESTERING CANCER WOULDN'T BE
GRIPPING THE COUNTRY WHAT DO YOU
THINK?
>> TO TAKE YOUR ANALOGY,
LINGERING, FESTERING CANCER
WOULD HAVE KILLED THE PATIENT
TWO YEARS AGO.
I'M NOT A BIG ADVOCATE FOR THE
RIP THE BANDAID OFF, TRY TO
START ANEW.
I WOULD ARGUE SAYING HARD BREXIT
WOULD ALLOW BRITISH TO CUT GREAT
DEALS AROUND THE WORLD WITHOUT
ENCUMBERED BY RESTRICTIONS OF
EU, I THINK THAT IS THROWING
EVERYTHING 180 DEGREES IN THE
WRONG DIRECTION.
THE BRITISH ECONOMY IS
WELL-SERVED, DEEP, STRONG,
LIMITED TO NO TARIFFS OR
BARRIERS TO ITS BIGGEST TRADING
PARTNER, THE EU LOOK AT TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION POLICIES ON TRADE
NEGOTIATION, DO YOU HONESTLY
BELIEVE BOB LIGHTHIZER,
DONALD TRUMP, THIS
ADMINISTRATION, NO MATTER HOW
SPECIAL THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
THE U.S. AND UK, WILL GIVE THE
UK A SWEET DEAL?
I ARGUE QUITE THE OPPOSITE.
I THINK IF THEY WANT TO GIVE
THEM A SWEET DEAL IT WOULD TAKE
YEARS.
I DON'T THINK GETTING OUT OF THE
E.U. IS THE SMARTEST THING ANY
WAY, BUT DOING IT IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME BETTER DEAL
OUT THERE IN THE ETHER, I THINK
THAT IS JUST WRONG ON ALL
COUNTS.