Geoff: Congress has just started
its new term, but many senators
and senate hopefuls are already
thinking about the next
election.
Just today, congressman Adam
Schiff became the second
Democrat to jump into the 2024
race for the senate in
California.
And earlier this week,
democratic congressman Ruben
Gallego announced he's running
for the senate seat in Arizona.
His campaign announcement took
aim at the incumbent, newly
independent senator Kyrsten
Sinema.
>> If you're more likely to be
meeting with the powerful than
the powerless, you're doing this
job incorrectly.
I'm sorry that politicians have
let you down.
But I'm going to change that.
I'm Ruben Gallego.
I'm going to be the center of
Arizona, because you deserve
somebody fighting for you and
fighting with you every day.
Geoff: Arizona is always a
closely watched state, and the
2024 senate race is no
exception.
It's rated a toss up and is one
of nine key senate
battlegrounds, according to the
cook political report with Amy
Walter, which released its first
2024 analysis this week.
And joining us now is our
friend, the aforementioned Amy
Walter.
It's great to see you.
Amy: Good to see you, geoff.
Thank you.
Geoff: So, Democrats are
expected to have a tougher map
in 2024 as they try to defend
their slim senate majority.
They're on defense in states
like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada.
Where are you watching for?
Sheera: Well, I'm glad you
brought up Arizona, because
that's the most complicated of
all these.
As you pointed out, Ruben
Gallego is a Democrat.
Kyrsten Sinema used to be a
Democrat not that long ago.
It sets up the possibility here
in a state where Democrats have
been doing really well for the
last few years.
Winning two senate races.
Biden won there, won a
governor's race.
But if Sinema's running,
Gallego, the Democrat's running,
they could split up that pool of
independent and democratic
votes, allowing a Republican to
win there.
It also puts the democratic
senate campaign committee, the
people who are in charge of
helping incumbents, in a pretty
awkward position, too.
Technically, she's not a
Democrat, but she still votes
with Democrats.
Geoff: They've got some tough
decisions to make.
Amy: That's right.
And I think secretly a lot of
them are hoping that, well,
maybe she just doesn't run for
reelection.
And then that makes our job a
little bit easier.
But if she does, it makes it
much more complicated.
Geoff: You've also got three
states on your radar that voted
for Donald Trump in 2020, but
are represented by democratic
senators -- Ohio, Montana, and
West Virginia.
Sherrod brown says he's going to
run again in Ohio.
We haven't heard yet from Jon
tester and Joe Manchin.
Do those senators need to run in
order to help Democrats keep
those states?
Amy: I never say anything's
impossible, geoff, but holding
on to those two states without
those two senators, tester and
Manchin, is all but impossible.
Remember, West Virginia,
especially, a state that went
for president trump by almost 40
points.
This is a state that is so
deeply red.
It's quite remarkable that
Manchin has been able to hold on
to this state year after year,
election after election.
Now, he also turns 77 by the
time we hit 2024.
So besides the fact that he's in
a red state, he's got the issue
of his age.
And the question is whether the
popular incumbent governor, who
himself was once a Democrat, Jim
justice, runs.
That's a much more difficult
race than Manchin's ever had to
face before.
Jon tester is also in a unique
position in a state like
Montana, which, again, pretty
red, but he's outperformed the
democratic presidential
candidate time after time.
What's getting harder and
harder, though, geoff, as you
probably know, is running as a
and as a candidate from a state
that is different from your
party that's voted for the
presidential candidate of the
other party in winning in a
presidential year.
In 2016, there was not one
senate candidate who won in a
state that their presidential
nominee didn't win.
And in 2020, the only person to
win was Susan Collins.
She won in Maine, even as Joe
Biden carried that state as
well.
Geoff: For the Democrats,
though, apart from the
personalities, what can they do
policy-wise to help their
chances?
Amy: You know, it's a really
good point.
And a lot of Democrats, after
the 2022 election, said we were
able to pick up a seat in the
senate not just because
Republicans put up really bad
candidates.
That was the conventional
conversation both during and
after.
Geoff: Even Mitch Mcconnell said
that.
Amy: Yes.
Exactly.
Both during and after the
campaign was if Republicans had
put up better candidates,
Republicans would have won.
But Democrats also had a story
to tell, which was they passed a
lot of legislation in the
basically early to late summer
of 2022, everything from
infrastructure, the chips act on
more domestic manufacturing of
microchips and, of course, the
inflation reduction act.
The good news for Democrats is,
even though there's not a
likelihood you're going to see
big pieces of legislation passed
in the coming year with a
divided congress, those pieces
of legislation are still doling
out money.
Right?
There's still infrastructure
going on.
The president himself seems to
be going to a swing state every
week highlighting new projects
that have been funded by these
very pieces of legislation.
Geoff: Let's talk about the
Republicans, Amy, because in
looking at your analysis, I
noted that you see only one GOP
held seat potentially in play,
and that's Florida.
Really, only one?
One seat?
Amy: I know.
Republicans have a very good map
this year in the same way
Democrats had a very good map in
2022.
They only have 11 seats to
defend.
Most of them are in dark red
states.
Now, Florida, remember when
Florida used to be a tossup
state?
Geoff: Barely, barely remember
that.
Amy: Barely remember that.
It's moving further and further,
and a bit off of the map for
Democrats.
And the bigger question for
Democrats is, where do you
invest?
They have to play so much
defense.
Are they going have enough
money, especially to play in an
expensive state like Florida?
Texas is also up.
Remember, in 2018, that was a
very competitive race with Beto
O'rourke and Ted Cruz.
But again, a really, really
expensive state.
And right now you're just not
hearing Democrats get
particularly excited about it.
Geoff: Amy Walter, always great
to speak with you.
Thanks for coming in.
Amy: Great to see you.