THOSE ARE SOME OF YOUR
HEADLINES.
MARIA: THANK YOU.
THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
RELEASING THE BUDGET ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK PROJECTING DEBT WILL HIT
A RECORD IN JUST FIVE YEARS IT
CONTINUES TO GET WORSE, THE DEBT
IS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM 97% OF
GDP AT THE END OF FISCAL YEAR
2022 TO 107% OF GDP BY 2028 IT
CONTINUES HIGHER FROM THERE.
THE REPORT COMES AS LAWMAKERS
ARE WORKING TO NEGOTIATE A DEAL
TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING AHEAD
OF THE JUNE DEADLINE.
JOINING US A COMMITTEE FOR
RESPONSIBLE BUDGET PRESIDENT
MIAMI GUINNESS, IT’S GOOD TO SEE
YOU.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
THIS IS ABOUT TO HAVE A REAL
SHOWDOWN.
THE COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE
BUDGET HAS RELEASED ITS ANALYSIS
OF THE CEO BUDGET AND OUTLOOK.
WE HEARD FROM THE C.B.O. IT IS
DOWNRIGHT SCARY, HOW WOULD YOU
ASSESS THINGS RIGHT NOW.
>> THE NEWS THAT CAME OUT OF THE
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE WAS
REALLY WITH THE BAD.
IT WAS CHILLING AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL GET LAWMAKERS TO TAKE
THIS WILL GET LAWMAKERS TO TAKE
SERIOUSLY THE NEGOTIATIONS ON
HOW TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING
AND LET ME JUST SAY THERE SHOULD
BE NO TALK OF DEFAULT.
IT’S REALLY DANGEROUS BUT THE
IDEA OF RAISING THE DEBT CEILING
BY DOING SOMETHING IMPORTANT ON
THE BUDGET AND ON THE DEBT IS A
REALLY GOOD IDEA OR MOVING INTO
THE ACTUAL BUDGET PROCESS AND
MAKING SURE THE PRESIDENT PUTS
FORTH HIS BUDGET AND THE BUDGET
COMMITTEE DOES THEIRS AND THEY
WERE KIND OF PACKAGE TO GENERATE
SAVINGS.
IF I DIG INTO THE NUMBERS A
LITTLE BIT, ONE THING THAT WE
LEARNED IN THE COMING FIVE YEARS
AND THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL TERM
THERE WILL BE VERY SERIOUS AND
DANGEROUS MILESTONES TO HIT.
OUR DEBT OF GDP WILL BE THE
HIGHEST IT HAS EVER BEEN IN THE
HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY, THAT
INCLUDES RIGHT AFTER WORLD WAR
II.
NO REASON WE SHOULD BE AT THOSE
LEVELS AT THIS MOMENT.
ANOTHER THING WE WILL SEE IS THE
MEDICARE TRUST FUND PART A
RUNNING OUT AND BECOMING
INSOLVENT AND UNABLE TO PAY FULL
AMOUNTS TO PROVIDERS THAT IS
OWED.
ONE THING THAT GOT MY ATTENTION,
INTEREST PAYMENTS WILL ACTUALLY
BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN HOW MUCH
WE SPEND ON DEFENSE JUST IN THE
NEXT PRESIDENT’S TERMS THAT ARE
MUCH INTEREST PAYMENTS ARE THE
FASTEST GROWING PART OF THE
BUDGET WILL BE GROWING AND BE
THE THIRD-LARGEST PROGRAM IN OUR
ENTIRE BUDGET RIGHT AFTER SOCIAL
SECURITY AND MEDICARE.
MARIA: THAT IS INCREDIBLE AND AS
INTEREST RATES GO HIGHER THAT
NUMBER GOES UP, WHAT INTEREST
LIKE HALF A TRILLION HUNDREDS OF
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS JUST AN
INTEREST?
>> HALF A TRILLION AND OVER TEN
YEARS, 10 TRILLION PLUS.
WE WILL SPEND MORE THAN
$10 TRILLION ON INTEREST
PAYMENTS, JUST A FEW YEARS AGO
WHEN INTEREST RATES WERE LOW YOU
HAD ECONOMIST SAYING BORROW
MORE, BORROW MORE IT’S SO CHEAP
IT’S ALMOST FREE, THAT WAS NOT
TRUE THEN, WHEN YOU BORROW MONEY
AND THE GOVERNMENT BORROWS MONEY
IT JUST SAYS YOU DON’T HAVE TO
PAY FOR SOMEONE DOWN THE ROAD IS
GOING TO PAY FOR IT THAT MEANS
YOUNGER WORKERS OF OUR KIDS, BUT
IT ALSO MEANS WHEN INTEREST
RATES GO UP WERE MORE VULNERABLE
BECAUSE WE HAVE MUCH HIGHER DEBT
LOAD WHICH IS THE SITUATION WE
HAVE NOW.
MARIA: ONCE AGAIN THE
ADMINISTRATION CLAIMS IT IS FINE
AND THEY CUT THE DEFICIT.
JOE BIDEN TALKS ABOUT THE ALL
THE TIME THE PRESIDENT SAID IT
AGAIN IN THE STATE OF THE UNION
AND YOU WRITE THE FISCAL OUTLOOK
IS FAR WORSE LAST YEAR DUE TO
LEGISLATION ACTION AND ECONOMIC
CHANGES THESE ARE ALL POLICY
RELATED THESE ARE JUST MISTAKES.
>> WE TRY TO FACT CHECK THIS
EVERY TIME THE WHITE HOUSE MADE
THE CLAIM AND IT’S FRUSTRATING
BECAUSE THEY KNOW BETTER THE
FACT THE DEFICIT CAME DOWN
BECAUSE OF THE COVID SPENDING
WAS RUNNING OFF.
IT WAS ALL AUTOMATIC CHANGES AS
A RESULT COMING OUT OF THE
PANDEMIC.
BUT IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE
POLICIES THAT WERE PASSED FROM A
BIPARTISAN CONGRESS AND
EXECUTIVE ORDERS FROM THE
PRESIDENT.
THE DEFICIT WAS MUCH, MUCH WORSE
DUE TO ALL THE POLICIES THAT
WERE PASSED.
AND BECAUSE IT WAS A HIGH
DANGEROUSLY HIGH INFLATIONARY
YEAR, THE THING THAT WE
SHOULD’VE DONE ON FISCAL POLICY
WAS NOT SITTING AROUND A
BORROWING MORE AND MAKING THE
SITUATION WORSE THE WAY YOU
FIGHT INFLATION IS BRING THE
DEFICIT SPENDING DOWN
AGGRESSIVELY AS SHE CAN WE DID JUST THE OPPOSITE AND YOU SAW
JUST THE OPPOSITE AND YOU SAW
INFLATION IS STILL A PROBLEM AND
WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS
YEAR, WERE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
ON INFLATION AT ALL.
MARIA: 5 TRILLION PLUS IN
BORROWING AND THE LAST TWO
YEARS.
>> YES, CORRECT.
GO AHEAD.
>> IT MADE SENSE WE WERE
BORROWING DURING COVID DURING
THE INTO THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY
AND WHY BIDEN STARTED THE
AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN TO LARGE
AND LED TO SOMETHING WAY TOO LARGE.
ALL THE SUBSEQUENT BORROWING WAS
COMPLETELY MISPLACED AND
MISDIRECTED, YOU SHOULD NOT DO
THAT WHEN THE ECONOMY IS STRONG
PARTICULARLY WITH INFLATION IN
THE COUNTRY HAS TO GET BACK INTO
THE HABIT YOU BORROW IF THERE’S
AN EMERGENCY OR MAJOR ECONOMIC
DOWNTURN AND THEN WHEN THE
ECONOMY IS STRONG YOU DON’T
BORROW YOU COME BACK DOWN TO
REASONABLE LEVELS AND YOU COULD
BORROW VERY LITTLE OR RUN BUDGET
SURPLUSES IF WE WERE WILLING TO
GO BACK TO WHAT THE PATTERN
SHOULD BE.
MARIA: THIS BECOMES A CRISIS
THAT EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS WHEN
THE STOCK MARKET SELLS OFF
AUDIT. MARK TEPPER, SO FAR THE MARKETS
MARK TEPPER, SO FAR THE MARKETS
HAVE NOT FOCUSED ON THIS BUT THE
MARKETS DON’T CARE ABOUT DEBT
AND DEFICIT UNTIL THEY CARE
ABOUT DEBT AND DEFICIT.
>> YOU WILL SEE THE MARKET
LIKELY TO SELL OFF TEN OR 20% AS
WE APPROACH THE DEBT CEILING IN
JUNE AND JULY.
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU ABOUT
ENTITLEMENTS.
WHEN WE LOOK AT ENTITLEMENT
SPENDING I THINK IT’S ROUGHLY
TWO THIRDS OF OUR BUDGET RIGHT
NOW.
IN A DECADE OR SO WE’RE GOING TO
EXHAUST THE TRUST FUNDS AND
THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH MONEY
COMING IN FROM TAX REVENUE TO
PAY OUT 77% OF SOCIAL SOCIAL
SECURITY BENEFITS.
WHEN WILL WE HAVE THE COURAGE TO
ADDRESS THIS THING HAD ON.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT THERE ARE
SO MANY DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES
TO THE ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS AS
THEY ARE CURRENTLY SET UP TODAY.
WHEN SOCIAL SECURITY WAS ROLLED
OUT IN THE 1940s THERE WERE 40
PLUS WORKERS FOR EVERYONE
RETIREE, NOW THERE IS TO A HALF
WORKERS FOR EVERYONE RETIREE, PEOPLE ARE LIVING LONGER AND
PEOPLE ARE LIVING LONGER AND
FEWER BABIES.
THERE ARE BIG-TIME CHALLENGES
FOR THE ENTITLEMENTS, WHAT ARE
WE GOING TO DEAL HEAD-ON BEFORE
WE END UP IN 2032, 2033 AND ALL
OF THE SENIORS TAKE A 23% PAY
CUT. >> THANK YOU, MARIA KNOWS THIS
>> THANK YOU, MARIA KNOWS THIS
IS ONE OF THE GREATEST CONCERNS
THAT THE FEDERAL BUDGET HAS.
WE HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE
PROGRAMS WHEN WE KNOW THEY ARE
HEADED TOWARDS INSOLVENCY,
SOCIAL SECURITY AND PART A OF
MEDICARE.
IN FACT I THOUGHT THE STATE OF
THE UNION WAS REALLY POLITICS AT
ITS WORSE TO WATCH BOTH PARTIES
CHEERING THE NOTION OF NOT
FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE,
WHAT THAT MEANS AS YOU JUST LAID
OUT, REALLY I THOUGHT THE VISUAL
OF THAT AND ALL THE SENIOR
LAWMAKERS PROTECTING THEIR OWN
BENEFITS AND IGNORING THE FACT
AND NOT LEVELING WITH THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT THE
PROGRAMS WILL BECOME INSOLVENT
IN TODAY’S RETIREES ARE GOING TO
HAVE ACROSS-THE-BOARD BENEFIT
CUTS, YOUNGER WORKERS ARE NOT
GOING TO GET WHAT THEY WOULD
BEEN PROMISED.
COME WITH INSOLVENCY HIT SOCIAL
SECURITY C.B.O.’S, SOCIAL
SECURITY TRUSTEE SAY A LITTLE
BIT LONGER.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN, THERE WILL BE
BRUTAL ACROSS-THE-BOARD BENEFIT
CUTS FOR EVERYBODY.
FOR THE WEALTHY RETIREE WHO IS
FINE BUT THE WIDOW WHO IS 90 AND
DEPENDS ON THE PROGRAM FOR ALL
OF HER BENEFITS, INSTEAD OF
DOING THEIR JOBS AND FIXING THE
PROGRAM NOW OR TEN OR 20 YEARS
AGO WHEN WE KNEW IT WAS A
PROBLEM IN A WAY TO AVOID
HURTING PEOPLE THEY DELAYED AN
HOUR PROMISED NOT TO DO ANYTHING
THAT THE MOST RECKLESS PROMISE
THEY CAN MAKE.
MARIA: I’M NOT HEARING AT ALL IS
A PLAN TO FIX THE STAFF.
IT IS ALL POLITICS ALL THE TIME.
YOU HEARD JOE BIDEN IN THE STATE
OF THE UNION HE IS TELLING US
THAT THE REPUBLICANS WANT TO CUT
SOCIAL SECURITY.
WHERE IS THE PLAN, THE C.B.O. IS
PROJECTING SOCIAL SECURITY
MEDICARE IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST
FUND WILL BE INSOLVENT BY THE
END OF THE DECADE, WHAT ARE WE
DOING ABOUT IT.
>> THERE IS NO PLAN IN BOTH
PARTIES DON’T WANT TO SINK THEIR
TEETH INTO WHAT IS NECESSARY AT
THE END OF THE DAY WE TALK ABOUT
FIXES OF SOCIAL SECURITY.
IT’S GOING TO COME DOWN TO
RAISING THE AGE OR INCREASING
THE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT PEOPLE
HAVE TO MAKE AND NEITHER OF
THOSE ARE PALATABLE OPTIONS SO
BOTH PARTIES HAVE AVOIDED
TACKLING THE ISSUE.
>> YOU KNOW HOW YOU GET THE BOLD
DECISIONS OF ACTUAL ACTION IS
TERM LIMITS.
HE TAKE THE SELF-INTEREST OUT
AND ALL THEY’RE DOING IS
FOCUSING ON THE NEXT ELECTION.
CREATE TERM LIMITS THE PROBLEM
THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, THIS IS
INEVITABLE TRAIN WRECK.
MARIA: IT SHOULD HAPPEN THAT’S
WHAT I’VE BEEN SAYING WE NEED
TERM LIMITS WE CAN HAVE THEM
GOING IN THERE STAIN 40 OR 50
YEARS AND FORGET WHO THEY’RE
WORKING FOR.
DO YOU SEE ANY LIGHT IN TERMS OF
A PLAN?
>> I THINK THE CRITICAL THING TO FOCUS ON, ONCE WE GET TO THE
FOCUS ON, ONCE WE GET TO THE
DEBT CEILING AND WE NEED TO LAND
THE PLANE PROPERLY, DON’T TALK
ABOUT DEFAULT AND DON’T THREATEN
DEFAULT WE HAVE TO RAISE THE
DEBT CEILING THE BORROWING FROM
THE PAST AND WE NEED TO AGREE NO
NEW BORROWING THE WAY THAT YOUR
FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE IS NOT
LIFTING THE DEBT CEILING AND
PAYING OUR OWN BILLS IS NOT
INCURRING NEW BILLS I HOPE WILL
COME UP WITH SOME KIND OF A PLAN
MAY BE SPENDING CAPS OR HELPFUL
COMMISSION THAT WILL BE PART OF
THAT.
AS SOON AS WE GET THROUGH THAT
WE HAVE TO REALLY PUSH BACK ON
THE DON’T TOUCH SOCIAL SECURITY
AND SHOW THAT TO WHAT IT IS A
PROMISE ACROSS-THE-BOARD BENEFIT
CUT VERY QUICKLY WILL BE IN THE
RACE FOR PRESIDENT.
WHAT ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT
THINGS WE HAVE A REQUIREMENT
ANYBODY WHO’S RUNNING FOR
PRESIDENT TALKS ABOUT HOW THEY
WOULD FIX THESE IMPORTANT
PROGRAMS RATHER THAN LETTING THE
TRUST FUNDS HIT INSOLVENCY, NO
ONE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DOCK THIS ISSUE
BECAUSE WHAT WE NEED IS A REAL
PLAN AND THERE’S PLENTY OF WAYS
TO FIX SOCIAL SECURITY AND
MEDICARE, THEY’RE NOT PAINLESS
ANYMORE BUT THEY WOULD’VE BEEN
WHEN WE STARTED WARNING ABOUT IT
BUT WE CAN STILL GET IT DONE IT
IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN IF WE
WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MOMENT WHEN
IT WILL BE VERY PAINFUL FOR A
LOT OF PEOPLE WHO DEPEND ON THE
PROGRAM.
MARIA: EVERY CANDIDATE WILL DUCK
THE QUESTION.
EVERY CANDIDATE, WATCH THIS.