to everyone watching on our NBC Sports, YouTube channel. We are
in so far Stadium. This is a better setup
than we will ever have
for this show. I'm Jay crouches drugs in sick.
We're gonna talk about bills, Rams
as well as some other week, one lines,
but let's just talk about being in so fi Stadium. First,
you got some good memories here, right? Oh yeah,
absolutely. It was right over there. Watching the NFC
championship game when incredible comeback by
the Rams. And
Obviously the Rams were my big ticket to win the Super Bowl
last year, and the ship the Calcutta. Thanks to them. And
that to this moment remains one of the high points of 2022. No
questions asked. And to be back, is a lot of great
memories. How about you?
Yes, I'm for me,
I was at the Super Bowl, was lucky enough to be here for
the guy. I'm riding my Cooper cup Super Bowl MVP. I think, plus
800 ticket,
a lot of a lot of thought went into the bed and it kind of all
went out the window. When Odell Beckham to started catching
every All spit
a when he got injured and then the whole game. I'm just
watching cop, every single play. I'm not watching
the game, watching the Super Bowl, just watching Cooper cup when
the Bangles are on offense and just watching Cup on
the sidelines.
Making sure he's staying hydrated.
Make your choice in the position to succeed and then he
catches the touch doubt in. We think that ends oh, right?
Yeah. And any wraps it up but
so in terms of the next ramps for you,
thanks for a Calcutta.
Do you have a favorite features about?
Yeah, I think you have to
hold off on the Rams because number one I think their path
dependent they're a team that matches up really well with
somebody like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a playoff matchup
but they match up poorly against the likes of the Green
Bay Packers.
The fact that those three teams sit atop the NFC Market.
I think is a little bit suspect. They all have sort of general
questions about their abilities. To
kind of answer the key problems that exist with those rosters.
The Rams key problem, in my opinion, is just
lack of depth. They lose more coaches. This offseason.
They really kind of Count On,
You Know, full contributions from their key Stars, obviously
Stafford and cup on offense,
and then Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on defense and one kind
of meaningful injury to any of those four pieces and all
the sudden you have a unit that all the, you know, that doesn't
look all universe and you know that's going to put pressure on
the team to replicate their performance.
It was interesting to me all the kind of buzz around
the Stafford elbow injury. I find fascinating because
you know, pretty Clearly, he seems like he maybe needed
Tommy John after last year, but they either elected to do some
sort of minor procedure or just trying to treat it with rest
and
kind of, you know, kind of keep them on a pitch count, which
I mean that may work, but that kind of tells you the mindset
of this team. They don't really think of that. They can afford
to go a, you know, nothing, you know, not, you know, try to
press their advantage, this season. Get a second, Super
Bowl title, they're
all in again. I would expect them to be pretty active in.
Player acquisition Market over the balance of this season.
I've been with Odell Beckham maybe with a while. Definitely
expect Odell Beckham to come
back. In fact, I think the fact that he hasn't signed with
another team is just an indication if he intends to
come back
but you know they let Von Miller walk to the Buffalo
Bills who were going to see tomorrow night and
you know, they may need to get aggressive at least in the pass
rush market and you know, try to pick off some more pieces to
make a repeat run. So really as of right now I think the market
price on them is fair
but I can see opportunities to bed um into them over
the balance of the season and they are path dependent. What is
your read turning off win? So do I think that is about rod
for the Rams?
It's weird web, they're not, I don't think they were really
high variance, tame and less injuries, come here, in which
case, it becomes very high variance. But I would be
worried about them
that San Francisco. Is in that division, who might be
the highest variance team in the league. Just because Trey Lance
is maybe the highest variance player in the entire league. So
I still have the ram slightly above the Niners, just more of
a sure thing.
Yeah, no longer respect from the market will get into
the bills. Rams game a little bit lighter but it was surprised
that that is going out to 22 and a half. But is there just
quickly is that one Futures bet
that you really like
man actually I got more down
this last week is there was some odd boost floating around
there but I have a decent position now on Josh Allen MVP.
I think the case is fairly straightforward. You don't need
these little these little pieces of paper for a reason
and the reason is
The bills are the most likely team to get a one seed.
And that is because all of a sudden, the AFC East does not
look anywhere close to as competitive as was expected.
When the markets went up there
and, you know, the bills kind of path to getting the most
wins and posting playoff games is pretty apparent. And if you
didn't already know the MVP goes to the best quarterback on
a team that has a one seed or a one or two seat.
And so I think the bill is having the inside track, their
gives them a huge huge Edge and you know the likes of Pat
Mahomes and Herbert because those divisions are so
cheap. So difficult, I don't that's going to come down to
the wire and, you know, somebody like the Broncos could
even steal the West. I think,
you know, puts them on a clear second-tier. So
anything better than about
seven to one, I think, is a vet on
Josh Allen at this point and I think that price goes one way
between now and the end of the season. Yep, just quickly on
that 13 of the past 17 MVP winners have been on once AIDS
the bills Applause 275 you get the one say don't touch that
just look at Josh challenge, MVP price because it's
More than twice as big and he's going to get the credit. Now
song about Jocelyn MVP.
Earlier on Matthew berries, news show the fantasy football,
happy hour with Matthew Berry, which I'm a co-host of
the legendary fantasy. Football analyst is back with MBC and
rotor world doing what he does. Best rolling out. His love hate
list, breaking out who to start and sit talking about all his
love for the Minnesota Vikings, who he is all it. I don't
mind that look, either from family's perspective, at least
and they'll also be plenty of actual information. On the way
for sports Bettors as well
which is what I'm bringing that. So you can check it out
weekdays in the afternoon on peacock or listen to the show
in podcast form, wherever you download And
subscribe. Okay, let's talk about Week, 1, NF l-- Power,
Rankings some areas where we may be diverged from consensus.
And so one area
I feel this way every I'm always higher on the Jags than
I should be but I think you share that optimism with me and
they have a really interesting way. Keep on going.
Yeah, they do. And the market has been hot for these guys. We
saw probably. I would I would grade this as the most
significant move between you know, preseason and now and
it's because it crossed three. You can say well the you know
the Chiefs have
caught more points. Yeah, that's true. But in terms of
like the just the expected win probability for a given team.
Going up, the biggest Delta has been the Jaguars going from
three and a half to two and a half is rare. But it just tells
that the market is
General is in my opinion at least supporting this Jaguar Squad.
There may be a little bit of pessimism on the Commander's
you know a lot of reports out of camp that they hasn't
necessarily been an especially clean Camp. Definitely I think
some people were caught by surprise that their pass rush
isn't looking quite as in, you know, as formidable as it was
going to be this season at least to start
the year.
And so I understand, you know, why they're this move has been
made but at this point, there was some pretty significant.
By back on Two and a Half out of flat to nap - 110 yesterday.
So I had that at least is the signal to me, that that is
where this Market is going to close. So, the decision becomes
do you get involved with the the Jaguars, or do you take
the money line at this point?
And you know, where is your read on the Jaguars Beyond,
just the optimistic, and the way that their power rated? Do
you think that they qualify as a high variance team where
you're more inclined to take the money line priced, and take
the two and a half
points? I think so. And I think that if you're optimistic about
the Jags, that's why you start to look at the You just
markets. You see if you're optimistic about the Jags and
you should bet them to win the AFC South because that division
is terrible.
There's still some plus 750 floating around on the Jags
which I think is a good bet at that price, it's not so much
a bet on Jacksonville's. It's a bet against Indianapolis
Tennessee and Houston.
The Commander's matchup is
a little little weird. I think the Commander's are a team
where everyone is focusing on Carson Wentz
because of how catastrophically he ended last season losing
a sixth.
And a half Point favorite in Jacksonville.
Much to my chagrin,
someone who visited the Colts
but it's me. The question is more you touched on it on
the defense. Without Chase young
that defense was really really bad last year after being
really good here before and to me that is the high variance
element. I think once will be fine, you'll be the
nineteenth twenty first best quarterback in the NFL.
Now, some weapons offensive line is okay,
but I think the defense will really determine that
and yeah, week one, I think
this is one of the
game. I think we're going to learn a lot more about those
teams and learn a lot about everything, but even more so
than like, Baltimore New York, I feel like
not going to really change my opinion much about either of
those teams, but this one, if the Jacks come out and blow
them out, I think you really have to adjust your prior
pretty quickly. Yeah. And I
fully agree with that sentiment at this point. I don't think
I could Advocate a better two and a half, but I think the over is
worth a look, I don't particularly on that grand.
Those grounds that maybe the Washington defense
could be close. With the bottom half of the league. Then top
half as we at least as currently roster.
Yep. I like that. Now, the eldest son wants to talk about
the biggest move all
in the market from
start of the offices and until now in Futures markets
empowering his overall would baby eagles. They were plus 300
to win the NFC East after the Super Bowl played here by
the way.
And now they are plus 145.
They are Co favorite with the Cowboys, some places, other
places, that is outright favorite. Now to win, The
division and we know
obviously they've added a Joe Brown's, the big one, but then
also adding James Bradbury, the song Redick, getting some key
guys back from injury
there, the the trendy team, the hot temper and loves them. And
I like football Outsiders very, very high on the Eagles BFF as
well. Do you think it's gone
too far? You know
plus 145 is actually still value to me. Okay amazing. Wow,
my uncle's, my fear is plus 105 for them to in the East
but I honestly Be like at this time of year, I think you're
better off attacking the
higher payout, type of ways of getting involved there
and I'm giving you a big because the bull case for
the Eagles isn't just that from 52 to from, you know, from
2253 that is at the top five team in the NFL and hurts at
least from reports in Camp. Seems to have control of
the locker room support of
the team. And just in general, you know, they're positive
about what he has brought so far. Through training camp. So
the idea that, you know, the Eagles are going to surprise to
the good is independent of the fact that they have the easiest
scheduling NFL. And it's not closed.
And in an NFC that is
week, much, much weaker than the AFC
and just considering who they drew as opponents.
I think it's very
reasonable to expect that if things go. Well, that's a team
that has a path to 11. 12 13 wins potentially at which point
the one seed in the NFC is very much in grasp. We talked about
About this earlier this summer,
there were 22 ones available
at one point better in my pocket for the Eagles to be
the one seed, and I think that that is still a very reasonable
expectation.
Now, once they get to the playoffs is Jalen hurd's, going
to do what he did last year and turtle and a big moment
against, you know, the big boys, the elites,
you know, that's very reasonable and and oh by
the way,
Eagles defense and great in the trenches, but there are still
some questions in terms of coverage. And so I think after
Yolanda, safety linebacker,
good luck against Aaron Rodgers, good luck against Matthews,
For good luck against Tom, Brady. So I think there will be
a point where we get to sell high on this Eagles team. But
I still think that there are by right now even at possible and
45 to go East that them to win the regular season. Because
once you get to the files, you don't have these. You schedule
in the NFL anymore and then you need Jalen hurd's to become
a top eight quarterback, which is much more doubtful than
them, being able to roast and a few quick Eagles questions. So
they're playing the Lions?
Yes, Lions. Also a market darling, I'll Detroit Lions
aren't
friends.
What, what is your read on? How the result of that game will
influence the market in week two? Will it be?
People will jump off of the ship whoever loses
or will it be,
you know, an opportunity to sell high on? Whoever wins?
I think it's going to be much more notable if the Eagles lose
because that will require much bigger adjustment. The people
of bullish on the Lions, their win total still six and a half.
If they got
blown out, I don't really change my opinion that much
like slightly adjust. But if the Eagles really struggle,
Lures badly. Then I would change my opinion on
the Eagles.
Not to our about our Detroit Lions.
Like I drew the NFL season is finally here
and the NBC Sports predictor. App is giving you
two shots at winning a hundred thousand dollars by entering
Sunday, night's Evans free contest. The first is on
Thursday, by guessing what will happen between the bills and
the Rams right here at. So,
if I Stadium as they usher in the 2022 season, then on Sunday
night, you have another chance
when the Buccaneers
His face the Cowboys just going to have some interest in.
So if you don't have the predictor up,
go download it now. But let's close off by finishing
talking about the bills and the Rams playing behind us the
water bills to and two-and-a-half-hour been out.
Open Rams, minus 1 as this line shifted to the March
I think that the price currently is completely fair.
And I think the biggest decision you have to make if
you're going to bet aside in this game
is are you going? Get involved with the Rams at the
plus two and a half. Are you going to take the money on
the, you know, in general, I think these teams match up well
against each other offensively but we have a very high total
of 52. My fair price on your, my fair total on this one would
be 53. So, I have a small small Edge to the over,
but, you know, realistically, the bills coming out and trying
to make a statement game. Considering, what, how their
season ended last year?
That's not crazy.
The bills in general a team that do not take.
Take their foot off the gas. At least they haven't in recent
Seasons so it's not like that, you know, they're going to try
to milk a lead and you know, take do, take the air out of
the ball. So
I do think that there are opportunities to get involved
from a betting standpoint here and but, you know, a from a,
from a
fair price. In this game,
I make the bills 58 percent chance to win.
So, in the two two-and-a-half range to me seems like
a perfect number. Yeah, I'll tap to suck the fun out of
the room, all the siding, but the market has had, the market has
had a lot
of time to think about
Is lon and to get it, right? So I think you kind of have to
defer the edge on NFL lines. Now, the way effectively in
season is going to come on Sunday, nights, and Monday
mornings when there's a
lot of room to move. But,
yeah, I would be a little bit
skeptical about the bills. Probably a little bit colder
than the consensus just because, you know, they're
being treated as an absolute Juggernaut there. The Kalia
Super Bowl favorite. Now the clear favorite in the AFC
by a distance, the favorite for the one seed as well, but when
they still have weakness, the offensive line is not Elite.
Yes. And
also more concerning Lee perhaps is that the corner back
room until today versus white gets back? And he's on
the poplars now. So, he's out the first four weeks.
He's going to be Kaya, alarmed
danger. Axon out there covering Allen Robinson and Cooper cop,
which I think again leans to your point about the over
potentially being a bad. And also just in general, like
totals are more vulnerable than the line. Surely, if you're
sorry, that's another just look better.
Yeah, a couple of other thoughts about game state that
I think play into. In-game bedding and or a half times
that that I'm going to be paying more close attention to
because I don't have a lot
at stake pregame here, you know, kind of the the idea that
the bills are going to continue to try to score even with
the lead. And the fact that the Rams have the knack for making
very, very strong in-game adjustments. Offensively are
two huge reasons to
look for a bills, lead correlating to an over play in
general. If you have a two score lead, sometimes there's
a little bit of Of a, you know, a discount on the total because
it's like well games over, you know, not not really expecting
this to
be competitive in the second half, you may get
an opportunity to bed a second half over here, but I think,
you know, if
that's, I think an ideal outcome here
is 14/3 halftime, those are up by, you know, 11 points,
and then you're probably going to see a second half where
the Rams are, you know, -3 and a total in like 24 range when
I think realistically should be more like 28.
So I think that's probably
what I'm most excited too.
To attack here is an in game play.
And you know, I mean 14-3 obviously goes wait under
the first half total. Do you have any thoughts on if that's
realistic or not? Because the Rams do start a little slow
it's alright. I think
my read on the Rams I think this offense is going to be
better than I was last year when I won the Super Bowl.
I guess Allen Robinson is better than Robert Woods for
Odell Beckham and Matthew Stafford. Led the league in
interceptions last year? He's type of trouble, honesty and
17, picks. I think you'll get more
turnover luck. Look in his favor.
And another year in the system, not too worried about the elbow
until that rears its head in games. I think, if he's out
there playing, he will be good enough and
yeah, the season is here. Finally, we've been talking so
much about tennis little. Yeah, we got to Pivot into the NFL.
It's a boa kit today. Yeah,
yeah, exactly. So,
don't forget to check out NBC Sports edge.com for more
information to help you with your wages. Thanks for those of
you watching on our NBC Sports. YouTube channel. And if you're
listening to us in podcast form,
don't forget to subscribe and rate US. I don't think we're
going to be doing the show from the soap by Stadium turf every
day, but we will be doing it every day and we look forward
to talking more.