PEOPLE TUNING IN AND WAKING UP
AND A VIEWERS’ GUIDE AND WHICH
ONES YOU’RE WATCHING TONIGHT.
>> LET’S TAKE A LOOK HERE.
THIS IS SORT OF THE BIG
BATTLEGROUND HERE.
WHAT I MEAN WE’LL LOOK AT IT
FROM TWO PERCENTAGES.
FIRST OF ALL, WHERE ARE THE
STATES, ARE THERE ANY STATES
WHERE DONALD TRUMP THINKS HE CAN
FLIP BLUE STATES THAT HILLARY
CLINTON WON IN 2016?
THERE ARE THREE THAT TRUMP
CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
NEW HAMPSHIRE, MINNESOTA AND
NEVADA.
AND YOU HAVE TO SAY GOING IN TO
THE NIGHT THE BURDEN IS ON TRUMP
TO SHOW THAT HE REALLY HAS A
SHOT IN THESE STATES AS THE
VOTES COME IN BECAUSE THE
POLLING DEFINITELY IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, IN MINNESOTA, TO A
LESSER EXTENT NEVADA, THE
POLLING THOUGH HAS PUT BIDEN
AHEAD IN ALL OF THE STATES.
NEW HAMPSHIRE IS FIRST ONE OF
THESE WE’LL GET A READOUT FROM.
WE WANT TO SEE TONIGHT ARE THERE
ANY BLUE STATES FROM 2016 THAT
ARE NOT GOING TO BE BIDEN STATES
IN 2020?
THE POLLING SUGGESTS DONALD
TRUMP HAS AN UPHILL FIGHT IN ALL
OF THEM.
IF THEY STAY BLUE, BIDEN STARTS
OUT WHERE HILLARY CLINTON
FINISHED IN 2016, AND THAT
LEAVES THE BATTLEGROUND THAT IS
FILLED WITH STATES THAT DONALD
TRUMP CARRIED IN 2016 AND WHERE
HE’S PLAYING DEFENSE IN 2020
TRYING TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 270
ELECTORAL VOTES.
YOU TALKED ABOUT AT THE TOP OF
ALL OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
WHICH TWO ARE DONALD TRUMP’S
POLL NUMBERS RIGHT NOW THE
WORST, WHERE IS HE FACING THE
BIGGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
GAPS?
IT’S THESE TWO STATES RIGHT
HERE.
IT’S WISCONSIN AND IT IS
MICHIGAN.
THAT HAS CONTINUED TO TEND OF
THIS CAMPAIGN.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLING
AVERAGES, TRUMP FACES THE
BIGGEST GAPS RIGHT HERE THAT’S
WHY YOU HAVE SO MUCH ATTENTION
ON PENNSYLVANIA.
IF DONALD TRUMP IS NOT ABLE TO
PICK UP WISCONSIN OR MICHIGAN,
AND IS NOT ABLE TO FLIPFULLY
STATES THAT HILLARY CLINTON
CARRIED IN 2016, NOW WE’RE
LOOKING AT THIS AS A
BATTLEGROUND.
LET’S GO INTO THE NIGHT WITH
THAT IN MIND.
YOU MENTIONED FLORIDA.
7:00 P.M. MOST OF FLORIDA, NOT
THE PANHANDLE BUT THE REST OF
FLORIDA WE’LL GET THE RETURNS
FROM THERE.
NORTH CAROLINA A LOT LIKE
FLORIDA, TONS OF EARLY VOTES,
THEY PROCESS AND GET OUT AN
EARLY VOTE.
I THINK WE CAN GET A LOT OF
RESULTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA.
GEORGIA, THERE MAY BE SOME
DELAYS HERE IN GETTING VOTE
REPORTED OUT IN THE CORE
DEMOCRATIC AREA, ATLANTA AND THE
SURROUNDING AREA, THAT MIGHT BE
LATER REPORTING.
SEE HOW THAT GOES WITH GEORGIA,
OHIO, 7:30.
EARLY VOTING STATE, MAIL VOTE
PROCESSING EARLY AND WHAT THIS
SETS UP IN THE FIRST THREE OR
FOUR HOURS OF ELECTION NIGHT ARE
A SERIES OF MAKE OR BREAK TESTS
FOR DONALD TRUMP IN STATES HE
CARRIED IN 2016.
STATES WHERE THE POLLING AS YOU
HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IS VERY
SHAKY FOR HIM.
IF HE’S UNABLE TO FLIP ANY BLUE
STATES FROM 2016, AND IF HE’S
UNABLE TO PULL OFF A HAIL MARY
PASS IN A WISCONSIN OR A
MICHIGAN, THEN ALL FIVE OF THE
STATES, ANY ONE OF THEM WOULD BE
AN ELIMINATION CONTEST.
LOOK IF HE WERE TO LOSE GEORGIA
FOR INSTANCE, BIDEN WOULD BE
OVER 270.
THAT WOULD BE TRUE IF HE WERE TO
LOSE FLORIDA.
FLORIDA IN FACT WOULD BIDEN A
BIT OF A PASS.
HE CAN STILL LOSE WISCONSIN AND
HE’D STILL BE AT 270.
IT’S ELIMINATION CONTESTS
ESSENTIALLY FOR DONALD TRUMP IN
THE EARLY HOURS.
NOW, IF HE CAN FIGHT HIS WAY
THROUGH THOSE EARLY HOURS AND
WIN THE STATES WE’RE TALKING
ABOUT HERE, THE NEXT BIG TEST
FOR TRUMP -- WELL, TWO BIG TESTS
COME.
ONE IS THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT OF NEBRASKA.
IT IS ESSENTIALLY OMAHA,
METROPOLITAN OMAHA.
THIS IS AN AREA THAT TRUMP WON
BY THREE POINTS IN 2016.
REMEMBER, THEY GIVE THEM OUT BY
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS IN
NEBRASKA.
DEMOCRATS HAVE FELT VERY, VERY
BULLISH ABOUT THIS DISTRICT
BECAUSE OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS.
THE NEXT TEST THEN WOULD BECOME
ARIZONA AND IF THE DEMOCRATS ARE
GETTING NEBRASKA TOO AND IF
TRUMP HAS SURVIVED ALL FIVE
STATES WE TALKED ABOUT HERE,
ARIZONA IS AN ELIMINATION
CONTEST.
BECAUSE THAT PLUS NEBRASKA WOULD
ALSO GET JOE BIDEN THERE.
SO YOU SEE IT, TONIGHT TRUMP HAS
GOT TO WIN STATE AFTER STATE
AFTER STATE TO STAY ALIVE.
IF HE DOES, WE CAN START TALKING
ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA.
MUST-WIN PENNSYLVANIA.
HE’S GOT TO GET THROUGH --
DONALD TRUMP DOES ALL OF THE
OTHER STATES TO BRING IT DOWN TO
PENNSYLVANIA.
IF HE’S ABLE TO BRING IT DOWN TO
PENNSYLVANIA THAT’S THE STATE
WHERE WE EXPECT TO HAVE THE SLOW
COUNT, THE MAIL-IN BALLOTS THAT