♪
Various announcers: The National Debate, live and in colour.
Encounter 79.
Live from Ottawa.
Vassy:
for leaders to lay out their promises and directly challenge
their opponents in person on a national stage.
[applause]
Now though, we hear from leaders
on the campaign trail kind of every day,
often live on TV and social media.
As one political scientist put it,
So can they change the outcomes of elections?
And how much do debates matter anyway?
♪ ♪
Depending on who you talk to and what you read,
just how useful they are and how much impact they can have -
well it's up for debate.
Party strategists will tell you they're key.
It's really important.
A debate is a huge inflection point in a campaign
and continues to be so.
I think debates do influence voters.
Academics have long been
researching whether that's actually true.
Often it depends on the election.
We can identify certain debates that have had
the impact on the bottom line of voter intention.
Most debates, most of the time however,
don't have discernible impact.
Vassy:
He's a political scientist
at the University of British Columbia.
Other political scientists agree, including Andre Blay
of the University of Montréal.
He says,
Mr Mulcair has said he doesn't think we should
be in this fight at all.
♪ ♪
Vassy:
an election but political scientists say
the majority of the population doesn't tune in.
And those who do are already pretty engaged in politics.
Richard:
looking for confirmation.
Now sometimes they could
be looking for a kind of reassurance.
Vassy:
many people get their information about the debate
from how it's condensed
and news coverage and on social media.
Richard:
that do seem to change things,
a lot of the change unfolds as people learn about the debates
in the news stream.
Be serious...
Vassy:
is a rare example of when
a debate can change the outcome of an election.
He says this exchange became
the pivotal moment of the campaign.
I happen to believe that you've sold us out.
Vassy:
But during the debate he stepped toward Brian Mulroney
and questioned him on the government's
free trade agreement with the United States.
Once a country yields its energy...
We have not done it!
Once a country yields its agriculture.
Wrong again.
Once a country opens itself up
to a subsidy war with the United States...
Wrong again.
..then the political ability of this country
to sustain the influence
of the United States, to remain as an independent nation,
that is lost forever.
Mr Turner, Mr Turner...
Vassy:
but according to this paper in
the British Journal of Political Science
the debate had a substantial
and enduring impact on the vote.
The
the
♪ ♪
Debates
They tend to be attacked by all sides
and they have something to defend.
Nobody else really has much to defend.
Vassy: This is David Hurley.
He chaired several
Leaders who aren't as well-known and challengers
often have the most to gain.
According to this study in the 1988 debates it was
the party out of power who benefited the most.
Four years earlier things were entirely different.
Turner was the incumbent then.
Mulroney went at him for carrying out
his predecessor's partisan appointments.
Turner: Well, I told you and told the Canadian people
Mr Mulroney, that I had no option.
Mulroney: You had an option sir to say no.
And you chose to say yes
to the old attitudes and the old stories
of the
Jason:
Every time I want inspiration about a debate
I watch that moment because it's just so devastating.
Vassy:
He managed the war room for
the
Mr Mulroney just went at him with both barrels
and essentially sunk the campaign.
The most devastating blows often happen
isn't prepared for the shot.
Remember this debate in 2011? Jack Layton asked
how Michael Ignatieff could
expect to become prime minister
based on his attendance record in the House.
You know, most Canadians if they don't show up for work
they don't get a promotion.
Vassy:
on federal election campaigns for the
We were prepared for that night.
We knew that
that he was fast on his feet.
And it was devastating because you could see Mr Ignatieff
was like, "holy crap. I didn't see that coming."
And as soon as the debate ended
there was an ad on television with the same message.
V/O:
of all 308 members of Parliament.
Not so great leadership.
♪ ♪
So that was obviously completely coordinated and planned.
Vassy:
happened around the time of the debates, though there
were other factors at play too.
Those moments are what every strategist is hoping for.
And with social media the capacity
to distribute those moments
and for a moment to
really be seen by an awesome number of people
is much greater than it was before - traditional media.
And that's why they say debate prep is absolutely critical.
Debate prep is like going and sitting
in the dentist chair for a few hours.
And I got to tell you nobody likes to do it.
Strategy is key.
A few people are usually solely assigned to debate prep
and they will study the leaders,
their strengths, their weaknesses
what topics might get under their skin.
and then they'll prep
a debate book filled with facts, rebuttals and zingers
[applause]
And then you have the mock debates, to give you an idea -
this leaked video from
Hillary Clinton's 2016 debate prep shows
her campaign manager playing the role of Donald Trump.
Clinton was practicing how to avoid a hug.
So you've got to make sure that you've got
who who are believable and they've got to do a lot
of preparation as well.
That's the other thing, if they're unprepared
debate prep stinks.
Vassy:
as a lesson in why appearance can also be key.
Nixon had been ill and he stood out next
to Kennedy who appeared healthy.
Research indicated that people who listen to the debate
on the radio thought that Nixon won
the debate on television thought that Kennedy won.
Some teams even hire body language experts
to help leaders who might have physical habits or verbal tics
that could cause problems.
Mostly you want them to be comfortable.
What an incredibly stressful high-stakes moment
that hour and a half is for those leaders.
Vassy:
Sometimes you'll even see leaders turn to talk
to the camera and address the audience directly.
Let's be very clear,
we have health support for our refugees and immigrants...
♪ ♪
Vassy:
dial groups that showed people were turned off when exchanges
became really negative and leaders spoke over each other.
Lietaer: Whenever people start shouting at each other
or shouting over each other.
Dial goes down, like people hate it.
So
that says to not be shouting over each other.
Academics say you'll often see
the biggest effect on voters
immediately after the debate, which is amplified by
the next day's news coverage.
We saw highlights of that debate...
More often than not.
it's a short term change that is reversed.
So it's like a pulse that then goes away.
Even if there's no consensus on the effect debates have,
experts do agree that they're good for
the political process.
Debates level the playing field in a way
and allow parties who are maybe
second, third, fourth, fifth tier
to have an opportunity to engage with the leaders
at the same level.
Vassy:
It's the only time you'll ever really see the leaders
all together during the campaign interacting
and actually talking policy.
If you didn't have debates then really all of you would
have is the even stageier and even more fake world
of advertising, leaders tours and public appearances designed
to create positive impressions
♪ ♪