As we watch the
uncommitted votes come in.
As you noted,
Michigan has a tradition
of thousands of people
voting uncommitted.
And, in fact, in the last electi
and in the Democratic primary in
about 20,000 people voted uncomm
About 28,000 voted
uncommitted in the Republican pr
And you keep going back every fo
And it's about 20,000 people
in each party vote uncommitted.
So I kind of look at that
and maybe you tell me
what you think about this.
I kind of look at that
as the floor
for the uncommitted movement
this evening.
20,000 is like that's kind
of like what happens every elect
They get 30,
they get 40, they get 50,000.
Well, now we're talking.
That's a real protest, right?
So if you look at roughly 20,000
and I think that's that's
history says that's a fair numbe
One of the dynamics
sometimes in those uncommitted
votes is a certain candidate
decides not to contest the state
by back in 2008.
The uncommitted vote was way hig
because both Barack
Obama and John Edwards
didn't didn't play in Michigan
and their voters voted
on, committed to sort of say,
I want to go out and vote for my
but I can't vote for my guy.
So it was much higher then.
So the question this time, thoug
there's nobody there's nobody li
There's not another Democratic c
who said, oh, I'm going to skip
because Biden strong there.
So that, I think, is a true prot
as opposed to years past
where there are different reason
or it's,
you know, maybe let's not overst
It's all about Israel-Gaza.
Uncommitted is going to tell us
people who had a chance to vote
for an incumbent Democratic pres
or vote for his longshot challen
They chose to vote uncommitted.
So it tells you, number one,
they're unhappy.
They're looking for something el
than that.
And then the question is,
and our reporters on
the ground will help us,
how much of it is Israel, Gaza,
how much of it is repairable
and how much of it may be irrepa
There are the front page
of the Arab-American News
six, eight weeks
back was abandoned by them.
And when you talk to them out th
and you say,
but that might help Trump win.
Some say, I'll think about that
closer to November.
Others say,
I don't care
that this is a matter of princip
that I'm going to vote against B
on a matter of principle.
And if Trump wins, so be it.
That's the challenge for the pre
That's why his national security
deputy national advice,
was out there last week.
That's why
Ro Conner, the Democratic House
member, was out there
last week trying to help him.
That's why
the campaign team was out there.
This is a
this is a full court press
and Congressman
Congresswoman Debbie Dingell,
who you know, is from right down
in Detroit.
She has been
they'll call it a formal
five alarm fire
and pull at every fire alarm
and find this saying you better
there, you're in trouble.
And one of the things
that the people behind
the uncommitted movement
are trying to do
tonight is send the message.
Look, it doesn't really matter
what happened during the primary
Joe Biden's going to win
the Democratic primary.
But we're here and
Donald Trump only
won Michigan by 10,000 votes in
You need us.
Let me go to Diane Gallagher,
who's at a voting location right
And Diane, you're in Ann Arbor.
What are people telling you abou
uncommitted vote?
The exact conversation
that you and John were just havi
I spoke with several uncommitted
here in Ann Arbor
who gave various reasons for thi
Now, I do want to get into some
that I just received.
Of course, these are unofficial,
but they have been transmitted
from the city of Ann Arbor,
Ward five, Precinct 48.
As far as the Democratic Party g
President Joe Biden, 41 votes, D
Phillips for Marianne Williamson
four for and uncommitted receive
Just a
two vote
difference between Joe
Biden and uncommitted.
Now, on the Republican side,
we have six votes for Nikki Hale
for Donald Trump,
and three
for uncommitted,
a total of 112 votes at this pre
But look, I did
I spoke with many uncommitted vo
in Ann Arbor,
several of them
telling me they are not a part
of the Arab-American community,
but that this resonates with the
and this is their opportunity, t
to have that protest,
to let the president,
who they did plan to vote for,
they said in November,
hear what they have to say
about this particular issue.
So essentially,
this is the math
she just said on the Biden uncom
I left Dean Phillips and Mary an
with the 4139.
That's almost a tie, right?
So that's one precinct.
This is she's in. She's here.
Washtenaw County is where Ann Ar
So county
wide, Biden is doing much better
but still 25%. A 25%.
This is a college.
This is the main voting block.
Here is Ann Arbor, the college t
So you have students
who could vote there.
Then you have the entire,
you know, the infrastructure uni
Michigan's a giant place, right?
Again, Well, we were on the camp
It's about two months back now,
but we were on the campus.
We were there and they had a ban
pulled out
and they had a printout
from the literally from Hamas.
And they were writing
the names on the banners.
And there were students there.
Many of them were Arab-Americans
but there were many other studen
stopping by to help them.
And we spoke to the head of
the college Democrats
who said they were trying
to have a meeting to plan
about the election.
And it
all the energy was about Israel,
Now, the question is, as time pa
and as the president's tone has
as the president's policy has sh
he now says he maybe have a ceas
by early next week.
Can the president repair the dam
That is the question, because th
you see it right there.
You just heard it from Diane.
You see it in this one precinct.
The damage is real.
The question is you have eight m
Can you repair it?
All right.
Let's let's walk over to the pan
right now. Is that what we're do
Let me toss it to Dana.
Dana Bash on Capitol Hill.
Thank you.
And, you know, as we continue
that conversation,
one of the main reasons
we are so focused on Michigan to
isn't because
and we can just repeat
this isn't because we are not su
who's going to win the Democrati
and who's going to win
the Republican primary.
It's what does this tell us
about November?
And looking back in history,
just go back to 2016.
There was a very, very intense
primary in Michigan
between Bernie Sanders
and Hillary Clinton.
Everybody thought Hillary Clinto
was going to win that primary.
Bernie Sanders eked it out.
And if you fast forward
to the fall of 2016,
Hillary Clinton ended up losing
And so that's one of many exampl
throughout recent
history of places
like Michigan and Michigan itsel
being a harbinger for problems
that a candidate has in a primar
that bear out in the general ele
is that one of the things
that you're looking at
and looking for here?
David Chalian
Definitely one of the things to
in any primary contest, I think,
what and it's
not a one for one situation,
we should note that.
But what general election vulner
are exposed
by the coalition of folks
that come out and vote the way t
inside the context of your prima
Because we all know
politics is a game of addition,
And you need a unified base of s
from your own partizans
to be in the ballgame
for a general election.
And so looking for cracks in the
coalition in these Democratic
vote tallies
tonight is what we're looking fo
I mean, I'll just note,
with 7% of the estimated vote in
the uncommitted vote is already
11,607, rather.
So they've already crossed
the ridiculously
low expectations
setting that they had set for 10
But we've only got 7%
of the estimated vote in.
So there are 11,000.
Now, that role vote
number is going to grow
throughout this evening,
perhaps substantially.
So we'll see
how much of a
protest statement is made here.
But it doesn't mean
and this is important
for us to remember all day long
that every single one
of those uncommitted votes
is a Donald Trump vote in the fa
or stay at home. No Joe Biden vo
Perhaps the vast majority of the
who are participating
the Democratic primary
are making a statement tonight
to try to change policy
but are going to be in this
contest between
Trump and Biden in the fall
and very well may be with Biden,
but it does give the Biden campa
their to do list in Michigan.
Is really the enthusiasm gap,
which is probably the biggest ch
that Biden faces
heading into November,
getting the base energized
and which is clearly a large pro
vote, will make it very clear.
But the amount of work
that they have to do here,
what will be interesting,
too, is just the challenges
that each candidate
has within their own party.
For Biden, it is clearly the bas
It's younger voters,
minority voters in here,
Muslim voters, Arab
American voters
trump the right of center
voters, the suburban voters.
Those are the people that
have been voting for Nikki Haley
How much of vulnerability do
we see from him in tonight's res
As David said, like this is
we know the outcome here.
The impact of what it means for
is what we would have to scrutin
Yeah, I mean, to a certain exten
we're we're
we're doing vibe punditry, right
Because we know
we know how it's going to end.
We know Biden's going to win it.
We know Trump's going to win it.
And so instead it's trying to fe
where where the conversation
is going to be for Joe Biden
and Donald Trump in the days ahe
I mean, one of the things which
I think there's a point
that David made when we were on
years ago this morning
is one of things I'm looking for
what is
Nikki Haley's number
when she's not been
campaigning in Michigan.
That shows you
the more organic base kind of nu
But, you know, also
we were just talking about Ann A
That's a town
I'm sure that went for Bernie
Sanders in 2020.
So it's heavy with college stude
And, you know, it's
it's early to figure out the vib
quite yet.
Although I believe that
Michigan and Michigan State
are on spring break
right now,
I've been reliably
informed from a michigander.