David Scheffer.
He was the first person
to ever hold that position.
And we also have with us
the former deputy director
of National Intelligence, Beth Santer.
Thanks to both of you for being here.
Really appreciate it.
Let's start with this
arrest warrant.
Do you think
it's likely that Putin will actually ever
stand trial in The Hague
or face any consequences because of this?
It's possible.
And it's possible
because first,
this is the first step towards
delegitimizing him on a legal scale,
even before his own people.
Other top leaders who have been indicted,
whether by the war crimes
tribunals of the 1990s
or even by the International
Criminal Court,
ultimately lost their authority,
even domestically.
And they
then stand the risk of standing
trial before any of these tribunals
once that happens.
I don't think we should assume
that Vladimir Putin
is in power
for the next
10 to 15 or 20 years in Russia.
At some point, he'll lose that power.
And when he does,
I think in part prompted by this
this arrest warrant against him,
he'll be subject
to the possibility of arrest.
That's also true.
Even if he travels to India
or Pakistan or China or North Korea.
It's not that
he will be immediately arrested,
but there will be a tremendous
amount of pressure
put on those governments,
particularly India, for example,
not to cater to him,
because I would suspect
that some government leaders from
the G-20
will actually boycott the G-20 summit
if if Mr.
Putin indeed
is going to be present there.
They cannot
as as as was stated in your report,
they cannot
literally sit at a table
and negotiate with an indicted fugitive
of the International Criminal Court
or engage in diplomatic discussions
without a tremendous amount of blowback
if they do so.
Do you agree?
Do you think this will further
isolate Putin?
Well, if you look at the autocrats
that he hangs around with right now,
none of these people are signatories.
So, you know, Iran, North Korea, China
and even these parties
that are kind of the India
in-between parties like India.
So, you know, in some ways,
I think that it almost
geopolitically solidifies even more
the divisions
that we're seeing in our world.
You know, countries
that agree and countries
that don't agree, even though the U.S.
isn't a signatory,
we support this sort of
the sort of indictment. Right. Morally.
So I do think that there
is this division, you know,
but ultimately,
this just to me reinforces the
you know, let me count the ways
of how Putin sees this war
as an existential war.
Yeah. You know, because if he loses
right now, you know, the
consequences are much higher.
So in a way,
this might make him dig in even more.
Even though,
I mean, it's hard to imagine him digging
even in war.
But, you know, historically
that doesn't really play out.
Once these individuals
are actually indicted,
it's not as if they're emboldened.
They actually start
to lose their authority
and their political clout
and they achieve
international pariah status.
This this experience
we experienced this in the 1990s
and the early 2000s.
Once these leaders are indicted,
they are not strengthened
and they don't dig in.
They actually start to draw back.
Although we should note that
Chinese President
Xi Jinping is traveling to Moscow
next week to meet with Putin.
Do you think that this could change that
or affect that at all?
Not at all.
And so so I agree completely with David,
but I also think that, like,
we're kind of
in a different geopolitical moment now
where, you know,
what did the foreign ministry of China
say about this visit coming up?
He he said this is a moment where
we are two strong powers.
We are members, Russia
and China of the U.N. Security Council.
And this meeting has
so much more strategic value
than about our bilateral relationship.
This is about
creating an alternative world order.
And to me, you know, unfortunately,
I don't think China is going to be swayed
by any of this.
And both of these leaders
have known for a long time
that ultimately Mr.
Putin would be indicted.
So it's not as if this is a surprise.
They knew this was coming.
All right, David Scheffer
and Beth Sander,
thanks to both of you for your expertize.
Thanks for being here.