ABOUT IT.
NOW TO SYRIA.
THE WORLD IS AWAITING THE
PRESIDENT'S ACTION.
WHAT IS HE GOING TO DO ABOUT
SYRIA HAVING MADE THESE THREATS?
DAVID IS RUBIN WITH US, AND HE
IS OUR ISRAEL EXPERT ON THE
SPOT.
THE QUESTION THAT EVERYBODY IS
ASKING HERE IS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO TURN INTO A NASTY, REGIONAL
WAR?
WHAT IS YOUR ANSWER?
>> WELL STUART, A REGIONAL WAR
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE
SITUATION.
THERE ARE FOUR ALLIES WORKING
TOGETHER IN SYRIA.
ONE IS RUSSIA.
THE OTHER IS IRAN.
THE THIRD IS HEZBOLLAH AND THE
FOURTH IS ASSAD HIMSELF.
ASSAD IS THE SMALLEST PLAYER
HERE.
THE CHEMICAL ATTACK FROM ASSAD
HAS THE FINGERPRINTS OF IRAN ALL
OVER IT AND WE HAVE TO REMEMBER
THAT IRAN IS THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC FORCE IN THE MIDDLE
EAST TODAY.
SO BECAUSE YOU HAVE THOSE FOUR
PARTIES ALL ENSCONCED IN THEORY
HAVE RIGHT NOW AND EVERYONE
AROUND THE AREA IS AGAINST IRAN
AND AGAINST THE RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT.
SO, THE FORCES LIKE SAUDI ARABIA
AND THE PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES,
THEY ARE ALL AGAINST IRAN'S
PRESENCE IN SYRIA TODAY AND I
THINK THAT IS WHERE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE FOCUSED.
>> DAVID, THERE IS SOME CONCERN
IN AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE THAT
HAS NOT YET BEEN PROVEN THAT IT
WAS ASSAD WHO LAID OUT THOSE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND GASSES
WOMEN AND CHILDREN.
YOU JUST SAID IT WAS ASSAD AND
HAS IRANIAN FINGERPRINTS ALL
OVER IT.
CAN YOU BACK THAT UP?
>> OF COURSE.
IRAN IS KNOWN TO HAVE METHODS TO
BE DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
EVERYONE SPEAKS ABOUT THE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THEY ALSO HAVE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
SO THEY HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALL
OF THIS FOR YEARS.
LOOK, ASSAD BY HIMSELF IS AN
EMASCULATED FOREST BEAUTIES
SUFFERED A LOT FROM THE DEFEATS
THAT HAVE HAPPENED OVER THE
YEARS TO HIS FORCES.
HE IS THE STRONGEST PARTY AMONG
THE SERIOUS.
BUT THAT IS NOT TAKING MUCH.
IRAN IS IN THERE.
THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD
IS IN SYRIA AND THEY ARE BEING
PROTECTED BY RUSSIA, BY PUTIN.
SO IT IS CLEAR WHO ARE THE
POWERFUL FORCES IN SYRIA.
AND IT'S CLEAR THAT'S WHERE THE
ATTENTION SHOULD GO.
IF THERE'S ANY ATTACK ON SYRIA
RIGHT NOW, I WOULDN'T WASTE MY
TIME WITH THAT.
I WOULD GO RIGHT AFTER IRAN
BECAUSE THEY ARE PULLING THE
STRINGS THERE.
STUART: WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE OF
OIL?
IT'S GOT QUITE SHARPLY IN THE
LAST FEW DAYS BECAUSE OF THE
SITUATION IN SYRIA.
DO YOU EXPECT THAT CONTINUE, THE
PRICE GOING UP?
>> WELL, IT IS A NATURAL THING
THAT WHEN THERE IS CONFLICT IN
THE MIDDLE EAST, THE MARKETS GET
A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS.
THEY GET NERVOUS ABOUT THE OIL
SUPPLY.
BUT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THE
OIL SUPPLY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
COMES MAINLY FROM SAUDI ARABIA,
FROM THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.
THOSE ARE THE MAJOR SOURCES OF
WESTERN OIL TODAY.
IRAN IS STILL PUMPING OIL, BUT
MOST OF IT IS GOING TO CHINA.
SO I DON'T THINK THAT THERE'S A
REASON TO BE NERVOUS RIGHT NOW.
I THINK THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ON
STOPPING IRAN.
IN FACT, I COULD POINT OUT THAT
THE CROWN PRINCE OF SAUDI ARABIA
IS VERY, VERY NERVOUS ABOUT THE
IRANIAN PRESENCE AND WOULD BE
VERY HAPPY TO SEE AN ATTACK ON
IRANIAN FORCES IN SYRIA.
STUART: COTTAGE.
DAVID RUBIN, THE PLEASURE HAVING